Commander Jared Isaacman, the billionaire CEO of Shift4 Payments who purchased the five-day orbital flight from SpaceX, and mission specialist Sarah Gillis, one of two SpaceX engineers who are the company’s first employees to fly to space, exited SpaceX’s Dragon capsule one at a time, each spending about 12 minutes outside. The astronauts were traveling at 17,500 mph at an altitude more than 450 miles above Earth, higher than the International Space Station.

But there’s a catch. Because Dragon does not have an airlock, all four crewmembers were exposed to the vacuum of space. The mission profile added risk compared to a typical spacewalk, where astronauts enter and exit through a vacuum-sealed chamber.

“Today’s EVA was the first time four humans were exposed to the vacuum of space while completing the first-ever commercial astronaut spacewalk from a commercially-produced spacecraft in commercially-produced extravehicular activity [EVA] suits,” said Stu Keech, vice president of Dragon engineering at SpaceX.

SpaceX provided live stream coverage of the full, approximately two-hour process, which can be rewatched here.

The Falcon 9 rocket carrying Dragon and the Polaris Dawn crew lifted off from Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida early Tuesday morning. Almost immediately, the astronauts began preparing for the spacewalk.

The first step was a “prebreathe” to remove nitrogen bubbles that can form within body tissues, causing decompression sickness. During the approximately two-day process, the cabin’s pressure was lowered and oxygen levels were raised gradually to help the crew acclimate.

After that, the astronauts donned their EVA spacesuits, which are designed to be worn both inside and outside the spacecraft. Developed by SpaceX with help from Isaacman’s Polaris team, the suits have endured hundreds of hours of testing and feature greater mobility, durability, and even a high-tech heads-up display (HUD).

“Building a base on the moon and a city on Mars will require thousands of spacesuits,” SpaceX said in a post on X. “The development of this suit, and the EVA performed on this mission, will be important steps toward a scalable design for spacesuits on future long-duration missions.”

After completing suit leak checks and venting Dragon down to vacuum, Isaacman opened the hatch and was first to egress. Remaining attached to the spacecraft, he used a specially designed structure called Skywalker to move around and perform tests on the suit’s thermal and mobility systems. Skywalker is equipped with several cameras that were used to capture the moment in real time.

“SpaceX, back at home we all have a lot of work to do,” Isaacman said as he looked down on the planet below, “but from here, Earth sure looks like a perfect world.”

After Isaacman returned, it was Gillis’ turn. The SpaceX engineer stepped out and performed the same series of tests, while mission pilot Scott “Kidd” Poteet and mission specialist and medical officer Anna Menon monitored her support systems.

Finally, the hatch was closed, Dragon was repressurized, and the astronauts removed their suits.

“Dragon uses pure nitrogen during ‘repress,’ which mixes with the pure oxygen being released into the cabin via the open loop system that keeps the EVA suits pressurized,” SpaceX said. “This process is unique to Dragon which acts as its own airlock.”

From venting to repressurization, the entire process took about one hour and 45 minutes.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk was quick to praise the crew for its historic achievement, as was NASA administrator Bill Nelson.

“Congratulations @PolarisProgram and @SpaceX on the first commercial spacewalk in history!” Nelson posted on X. “Today’s success represents a giant leap forward for the commercial space industry and @NASA’s long-term goal to build a vibrant U.S. space economy.”

Polaris Dawn, the first of three missions Isaacman purchased for SpaceX under the Polaris program, has so far lived up to its lofty expectations. In addition to the spacewalk, the astronauts on day two of the mission ascended to an orbital height not reached by humans since the Apollo 17 astronauts in 1972, passing through hazardous radiation belts. 

Menon also read a children’s book she authored, Kisses from Space, for her family and patients of St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, live from orbit. While the Polaris missions are scientific—Polaris Dawn alone will conduct nearly 40 experiments—they are also billed as charitable endeavors to raise money for St. Jude.

Ultimately, the Polaris program may have a ripple effect on NASA’s efforts to return Americans to the moon via the Artemis program.

Polaris Mission III is expected to be the debut crewed flight of SpaceX’s Starship, the largest and most powerful rocket ever built. The space agency has asked the company to develop a lunar lander variant of Starship to land astronauts on the moon’s south pole, which will be used during Artemis III scheduled for September 2026.

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On Tuesday, as the company occasionally does when facing what it deems to be unfair treatment, SpaceX posted a lengthy update decrying the decision. According to the firm, the FAA had assured it that Starship would get the green light this month. It claims the rocket has been ready to fly since early August, an assertion CEO Elon Musk reiterated last week.

“Unfortunately, we continue to be stuck in a reality where it takes longer to do the government paperwork to license a rocket launch than it does to design and build the actual hardware,” the firm said. “This should never happen and directly threatens America’s position as the leader in space.”

With the ability to be used multiple times on the cheap, Starship is expected to be a game-changer for U.S. spaceflight. SpaceX wants to launch the rocket up to 120 times per year from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida. Musk last week claimed the vehicle will reach Mars within two years.

SpaceX is also developing a Starship human landing system (HLS), a lunar lander variant of the spacecraft, for NASA’s Artemis III mission, which would return Americans to the moon for the first time in more than half a century. Starship will require a few more test flights before the mission, which is scheduled for late 2026.

That’s not much time, but SpaceX plans to get there using its philosophy of iterative design. Basically, the company puts flight hardware through real-world testing as often as possible to learn quickly and improve the chances of success on the next flight. The strategy helped it commercialize the now-ubiquitous Falcon rocket.

“The more we fly safely, the faster we learn; the faster we learn, the sooner we realize full and rapid rocket reuse,” SpaceX said.

Each Starship test flight has flown farther and accomplished more than the last. The fourth, in June, marked the first time both Starship and the Super Heavy booster made it back to Earth in one piece after the first two attempts ended in explosions.

Keeping with the trend, Flight 5 will feature the most ambitious goal yet. SpaceX will attempt to catch Super Heavy midair using two large “chopstick” arms, returning it safely to the Starbase launch pad in Boca Chica, Texas. 

The maneuver could pose risk to Starbase’s launch tower, but SpaceX says it has been preparing for years. The delay could create a ripple effect that hampers future Starship test flights. Safely returning the booster is a critical piece of the system’s reusability.

“It’s understandable that such a unique operation would require additional time to analyze from a licensing perspective,” the firm said. “Unfortunately, instead of focusing resources on critical safety analysis and collaborating on rational safeguards to protect both the public and the environment, the licensing process has been repeatedly derailed by issues ranging from the frivolous to the patently absurd.”

What’s the Holdup?

SpaceX said the FAA communicated that a launch license would be awarded this month, but the process has been delayed due to “four open environmental issues” it deems unnecessary.

Starship’s maiden voyage in April 2023 was a brief but bombastic one. The FAA grounded the rocket as it investigated the launch and explosion, which shook buildings, shattered windows, and sent ash and debris flying miles away.

The impact was more severe than SpaceX anticipated due to the lack of a flame deflector—a common fixture at launch sites that uses water to absorb energy and heat—beneath Starbase. According to Musk, the system was absent because it “wasn’t ready in time” and the company thought the pad could withstand the launch.

The FAA’s handling of Starship’s initial launch license prompted a lawsuit from five environmental groups, which the agency reportedly has sought to dismiss. With the flame deflector installed, subsequent Starship flights have not destroyed the launch pad.

However, the FAA has approved two 60-day consultations that could extend the timeline for a fifth mission.

According to SpaceX, the only proposed change to the mission’s hot-stage jettison—during which the top of the Super Heavy booster is expelled—is a new splashdown location, which it says would not raise the risk of harm to marine life. Still, the FAA signed off on a consultation with the National Marine Fisheries Service to evaluate the new site.

“SpaceX’s current license authorizing the Starship Flight 4 launch also allows for multiple flights of the same vehicle configuration and mission profile,” the agency told FLYING. “SpaceX chose to modify both for its proposed Starship Flight 5 launch which triggered a more in-depth review.”

SpaceX, though, fears the review could be longer.

“The mechanics of these types of consultations outline that any new questions raised during that time can reset the 60-day counter, over and over again,” it said.

A separate consultation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), requested by the FAA due to Flight 5’s larger sonic boom radius, could add to the delays. A sonic boom occurs as Starship slows from supersonic speeds on its way back to Earth.

“SpaceX submitted new information in mid-August detailing how the environmental impact of Flight 5 will cover a larger area than previously reviewed,” the FAA said. “This requires the FAA to consult with other agencies.”

According to SpaceX, both agencies have studied Starship booster landings and concluded there is no significant environmental impact from sonic booms. The firm also claims studies back the idea that sonic booms have no detrimental effect on wildlife—but the jury is still out on that one.

According to an evaluation by the California Coastal Commission of SpaceX’s request to increase Falcon 9 launches at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, experts don’t fully understand the effects of noise on animals. The commission rejected the request in part because sonic booms generated by Falcon 9—a less powerful rocket than Starship—force too many closures and evacuations of local parks.

“At Starbase, we implement an extensive list of mitigations developed with federal and state agencies, many of which require year-round monitoring and frequent updates to regulators and consultation with independent biological experts,” SpaceX said.

Among other things, the company says it works with a local nonprofit to transport injured sea turtles for treatment and monitors bird local populations, using drones to search for nests before and after launch and. It also “adopted” Boca Chica Beach through a Texas state program and sponsors quarterly cleanups it says have removed hundreds of pounds of trash.

A CNBC report last month, which SpaceX swiftly rebuked, alleged that the company violated the Clean Water Act. The Environmental Protection Agency, though, told FLYING it did indeed violate that law.

Days before Starship’s third test flight in March, the EPA issued an order directing the company to eliminate “unpermitted discharges,” citing a liquid oxygen spill from the flame deflector’s water deluge system that seeped into the surrounding wetlands. SpaceX was forced to apply for a new permit from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ), which it did in July, but still ate a fine of nearly $150,000 to resolve the violation.

In response, the company denied it ever discharged pollutants or operated the deluge system without TCEQ permission. According to SpaceX, the device uses “literal drinking water” and has been deemed safe by the FAA, TCEQ, and USFWS.

SpaceX further claimed that the EPA issued its order without knowledge of its TCEQ license or “a basic understanding of the facts” of the system’s operation. It added that the fines are “entirely tied to disagreements over paperwork” and stem from a simple misunderstanding.

“We chose to settle so that we can focus our energy on completing the missions and commitments that we have made to the U.S. government, commercial customers, and ourselves,” SpaceX said. “Paying fines is extremely disappointing when we fundamentally disagree with the allegations, and we are supported by the fact that EPA has agreed that nothing about the operation of our flame deflector will need to change. Only the name of the permit has changed.”

The proposed settlement is open for public comment until October 21.

Singled Out?

The implication by SpaceX is that it is being unfairly targeted for its successes.

The company is prolific within the commercial spaceflight industry—experts estimate it accounted for 87 percent of all spacecraft mass space operators sent into orbit in 2023. At the same time, it handles more NASA missions than any of the agency’s private contractors.

That dominance occasionally draws ire from competitors such as Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin, or, as SpaceX puts it, “bad-faith hysterics from online detractors or special interest groups.”

“Despite a small, but vocal, minority of detractors trying to game the regulatory system to obstruct and delay the development of Starship, SpaceX remains committed to the mission at hand,” the company said.

NASA has made it known that it intends to become one of many customers within a commercial space ecosystem, rather than a service provider, by the end of the decade. As SpaceX continues to snap up NASA contracts—including an agreement to deorbit the International Space Station, ushering in that new era—rivals and critics may fear that its supremacy will only grow.

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Polaris Dawn, a five-day orbital mission purchased from the company by Jared Isaacman, the billionaire CEO of Shift4 Payments, is scheduled for lift off from Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida no earlier than 3:38 a.m. EDT Tuesday morning. Backup launch opportunities are available at 5:23 a.m. EDT and 7:09 a.m. EDT, with the same approximately four-hour window open Wednesday morning.

Spaceflight enthusiasts can watch as SpaceX streams the launch and mission highlights—including the first attempt at a civilian spacewalk—live on its website, X account, and YouTube channel. Coverage will begin 3.5 hours before takeoff. The company and Isaacman’s Polaris Program will post mission updates on their websites and social media feeds.

What’s the Big Deal?

Polaris Dawn’s four-person crew comprises Isaacman and retired Air Force pilot Scott “Kidd” Poteet, as well as SpaceX engineers Sarah Gillis and Anna Menon, who will be the first company employees to actually reach space. They will hitch a ride on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and circle the Earth in a modified version of the firm’s Crew Dragon capsule.

The Dragon—which in 2021 carried the first all-civilian astronaut crew on the Inspiration4 mission, also purchased by Isaacman—required a few major tweaks to support the historic civilian spacewalk. Arguably the riskiest portion of the mission, viewers will be able to witness it in real time.

Only two astronauts will exit the capsule, using newly installed mobility aids to perform tests on SpaceX’s specially designed extravehicular activity (EVA) spacesuits. The spacewalk is scheduled to happen on day three of the flight, which would be Thursday if it launches as planned.

“It will look like we’re doing a little bit of a dance,” said Isaacman last month, “…[but] we’re going through a test matrix on the suit. And the idea is to learn as much as we possibly can about this suit and get it back to the engineers to inform future suit design evolutions.”

However, because Dragon lacks an airlock, all four crewmembers will be exposed to the vacuum of space. To prepare, NASA engineers “baked out” the capsule’s interior using what is essentially a giant oven. The objective was to burn off toxic chemicals that could be released when oxygen is vented from the cabin.

Plenty of work has gone into preparing the astronauts and their EVA suits too. In the two days leading up to the spacewalk, for example, crew members will perform what is known as a “prebreathe” to remove nitrogen bubbles that can form within body tissues, causing decompression sickness.

In addition, the astronauts have spent about 100 hours wearing their suits and thousands of hours preparing using simulators, vacuum chambers, and centrifuges. They’ve gone scuba diving and skydiving, flown fighter jets, and even summited Ecuador’s Cotopaxi, a nearly 20,000-foot peak.

Poteet, who flew Air Force fighters for nearly two decades and was a Thunderbird, said the regimen was “some of the most challenging training that I’ve ever experienced.”

Though it will not be live streamed, Polaris Dawn will also ascend to an orbital height not reached by humans since the Apollo 17 astronauts more than half a century ago. A few hours after launch on Tuesday, Dragon will fly to an apogee of 870 miles, passing through a portion of the treacherous Van Allen radiation belts.

The following day, live on orbit, Menon will read a children’s book she authored to her family and patients of St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital. Polaris Dawn in addition to being a research mission is a charitable endeavor, aiming to raise millions for St. Jude like Inspiration4 before it.

On the fourth day of the mission, there will also be a live demonstration of a special communication system in Dragon’s trunk, which uses laser beams to interact with Starlink satellites as they zip through space. SpaceX last month said the stream will be worth tuning into but did not provide specifics.

If all goes according to plan, Isaacman, Poteet, Gillis, and Menon will splash down at one of seven locations off the coast of Florida on Sunday.

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The FAA on Wednesday announced it will require an investigation into Falcon 9’s launch of 21 Starlink satellites that morning, which concluded with the booster tipping over into the Atlantic Ocean. Depending on the length of the investigation, two crewed SpaceX missions that will rely on the rocket—one for NASA, the other for a billionaire entrepreneur—could face setbacks.

“We’re just focused on recovery weather at this point. I think that is still [the] gate to our launch.” Jared Isaacman, the purchaser and commander of the latter mission, said in a post on X, seeming to dismiss concerns of a lengthy inquiry.

Wednesday’s flight was the first of two planned back-to-back Starlink launches, the second of which was called off. After its second stage successfully deployed the satellites into orbit, Falcon 9’s first stage appeared to suffer a collapsed landing leg when it touched down on SpaceX’s A Shortfall of Gravitas droneship, stationed several miles off the Florida coast. As flames erupted around it, the booster gave way and tumbled into the water. Beyond the loss of the booster, no injuries or damage were reported.

Still, the incident was enough to bring an FAA investigation, seemingly ending a streak of more than 250 successful SpaceX booster recoveries dating back to 2021. The first stage that flew Wednesday, B1062, completed a record-setting 23rd launch and landing. It played a crucial role for SpaceX, serving as the booster for Inspiration4, which sent the first all-civilian crew to orbit, and Ax-1, the first crewed mission to the International Space Station flown entirely by commercial operators.

“Losing a booster is always sad,” said Jon Edwards, vice president of Falcon launch vehicles at SpaceX, in a post on X. “Each one of them has a unique history and character. Thankfully this doesn’t happen often, due to the robust design and vigilance of the team.

An investigation does not necessarily mean a prolonged grounding. SpaceX will need to submit a final report, including any actions it needs to take to prevent the issue from happening again, for FAA approval.

But if the mishap did not jeopardize public safety or Falcon 9’s safety-critical systems, SpaceX could request the FAA make a public safety determination. If approved, that would allow launches to continue during the investigation. When Falcon 9 was grounded in July, SpaceX used this method to return to flight in just two weeks.

“We are working as hard as we can to thoroughly understand root cause and get corrective actions in place ASAP,” Edwards said on X. “One thing we do know though is this was purely a recovery issue and posed no threat to primary mission or public safety.”

SpaceX is relying on Falcon 9 to launch Isaacman and three other crewmembers, including the first company employees to fly to space, on the historic Polaris Dawn mission. Originally scheduled for this week but delayed due to weather concerns and a small helium leak, the five-day mission will feature the first attempt at a civilian spacewalk. It also aims to orbit at a higher altitude than humans have reached since Apollo 17 more than half a century ago.

Complicating matters somewhat is that Launch Complex 39-A at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, which SpaceX will use for Polaris Dawn, is needed by NASA for the Europa Clipper mission scheduled for October 10. The company will also use Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station to launch Crew-9 to the ISS, which itself could be delayed by the investigation.

Unlike other Commercial Crew rotation missions SpaceX has flown for NASA, Crew-9 will have two astronauts rather than four to accommodate Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, who have been at the ISS since June on Boeing Starliner’s inaugural crew flight test (CFT). The space agency over the weekend opted to bring home the astronauts on SpaceX’s Dragon capsule rather than Starliner, making Falcon 9 an important piece of the operation.

Any delay to Crew-9 could further force NASA to come up with a new plan for Starliner. The capsule needs to depart the space station before Crew-9 launches in order to make way for Dragon.

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The semireusable vessel to the ISS is in the midst of its inaugural crew flight test (CFT) for NASA, which was planned as an eight-day visit to the orbital laboratory but has stretched for months. Officials over the weekend determined the spacecraft’s ongoing helium leaks and thruster issues pose too much risk for the mission to be completed with crew.

Instead, Wilmore and Williams will hitch a ride on SpaceX’s Crew Dragon, which will launch to the ISS on the Crew-9 mission scheduled for September 24. They’ll work alongside the Crew-9 astronauts during their six-month stay, coming home in February—eight months after they left.

The mission was intended to be Starliner’s final test flight before NASA certifies it for routine ISS missions.

“Spaceflight is risky, even at its safest and most routine,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson during an update at Johnson Space Center in Houston on Saturday. “A test flight, by nature, is neither safe nor routine. The decision to keep Butch and Suni aboard the International Space Station and bring Boeing’s Starliner home uncrewed is the result of our commitment to safety: our core value and our North Star.”

Both Wilmore and Williams are seasoned astronauts, having completed monthslong spaceflight missions in the past. They’ll have plenty of supplies for their extended stay. NASA launched an ISS commercial resupply mission this month and has another scheduled for October.

Norm Knight, director of flight operations for NASA, said he spoke to the crewmembers on Saturday and that they support the decision to return in February. During their lone Earth-to-orbit call in July, the astronauts said they are “having a great time” on the space station.

To make room for Wilmore and Williams, SpaceX’s Crew-9 will fly with two astronauts rather than the typical four. NASA is working to reconfigure Dragon’s seats and adjust the mission manifest to accommodate additional supplies, personal items, and spacesuits for the Starliner crew.

Before Crew-9 launches, Starliner—which is capable of flying autonomously—must undock and make a controlled reentry and landing in the New Mexico desert, freeing up a docking port for Dragon. NASA officials will conduct a flight readiness review to determine when that will happen.

“We also will continue to gather more data about Starliner during the uncrewed return and improve the system for future flights to the space station,” said Ken Bowersox, associate administrator of NASA’s space operations mission directorate.

Nelson on Saturday said he spoke to newly anointed Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, who assured him the company would finish out its $4.2 billion contract to develop Starliner and fly two to six commercial ISS missions. The manufacturer has already spent $1.6 billion out of pocket to cover delays and cost overruns on the fixed-price agreement.

“We continue to focus, first and foremost, on the safety of the crew and spacecraft,” Boeing said in a statement. “We are executing the mission as determined by NASA, and we are preparing the spacecraft for a safe and successful uncrewed return.”

What Went Wrong?

Technical problems and setbacks are nothing new for the Starliner program, which has been hampered by faulty thrusters, software and communications issues, corroded valves, and even flammable tape Boeing installed in the cockpit.

NASA in 2014 awarded contracts to Boeing and SpaceX, which received $2.6 billion, to build the vehicles that would comprise its Commercial Crew astronaut rotation program in a bid to reduce its reliance on Russian Soyuz spacecraft. The agency is seeking two vehicles so that each can serve as a backup for the other.

Since then, though, SpaceX has flown eight Commercial Crew missions, while Boeing has yet to complete a crewed flight test.

“All of us really wanted to complete the test flight with crew, and I think unanimously we’re disappointed not to be able to do that,” Bowersox said of the Starliner CFT.

NASA and Boeing knew about a helium leak on Starliner’s service module—the spacecraft’s expendable component—prior to the mission but took a calculated risk in authorizing it. During the vehicle’s approach to the ISS on June 6, crews discovered four more leaks, which officials said have stabilized.

The bigger issue lies with the service module’s reaction control system (RCS) thrusters, made by Boeing contractor Aerojet Rocketdyne. During Starliner’s deorbit burn, they will be required to align the spacecraft with its landing spot. Five of these thrusters failed to fire at full strength during its rendezvous with the ISS. All but one of them, which has been deactivated, are back to normal after testing, NASA said.

But the agency has struggled to trace the root cause of the problem. It delayed Crew-9 in order to perform ground testing at White Sands Test Facility in New Mexico, putting an identical RCS thruster through the same maneuvers that affected Starliner on orbit.

Throughout the process, officials insisted that Starliner—not Dragon—would be the astronauts’ ride home. But their tone changed in August, when engineers theorized that extreme heat from the thrusters caused a seal to expand, blocking the flow of propellant and dimming the flames.

“We are clearly operating this thruster at a higher temperature at times than it was designed for,” said Steve Stich, manager of NASA’s Commercial Crew program.

The thruster issue ultimately traces back to a design flaw with the “doghouses” that insulate the hardware from space. These pods—which each house several thrusters—are retaining too much heat during more intense maneuvers. Engineers thought they had addressed the issue following Starliner’s second uncrewed test flight, which reached the ISS but suffered similar RCS thruster problems.

“We thought, obviously, we had done enough analysis to show that the thrusters would be within the temperatures that they were qualified for,” said Stich. “Clearly, there were some misses in qualification.”

Officials on Saturday concluded, unanimously, that there is enough risk of the problem resurfacing during the deorbit burn to pivot to Dragon. But it wasn’t without pushback from Boeing, which according to Bowersox held “tense discussions” with NASA.

“We view the data and the uncertainty that’s there differently than Boeing does,” said Jim Free, associate administrator of NASA.

Boeing officials including Mark Nappi, vice president and manager of the company’s Commercial Crew program, repeatedly downplayed the severity of the thruster issues over the past two months. On August 2, the firm even made a blog post reiterating its confidence in Starliner and summarizing the testing that had been performed.

Ultimately, though, NASA said it has learned from the missteps of the space shuttle Columbia and Challenger catastrophes and decided to err on the side of caution.

“We lost two space shuttles as a result of there not being a culture in which information could come forward,” said Nelson. “We have been very solicitous of all of our employees that if you have some objection, you come forward.”

What’s Next?

Bringing Starliner home uncrewed undoubtedly deals a blow to Boeing, despite officials’ assurance that the capsule will soon fly again. Nelson said he is “100 percent certain” the spacecraft will carry crew on future missions.

“Starliner is a very capable spacecraft and, ultimately, this comes down to needing a higher level of certainty to perform a crewed return,” said Stich.

When those missions will launch, however, is anyone’s guess. The spacecraft’s debut service mission, Starliner-1, is scheduled for August 2025 after its initial February window was given to SpaceX’s Crew-10. But that date could be jeopardized by further NASA requirements, including—potentially—another CFT.

Officials on Saturday did not commit to that. But Stich in July said NASA and Boeing “understand it’s going to take a little bit longer” to certify the spacecraft than previously thought. Officials this month said they were unsure whether NASA would classify the CFT as a mishap, which would require a more thorough investigation.

Any delay could jeopardize Starliner’s ability to fulfill its contract before the ISS is retired by NASA and SpaceX at the end of the decade. Per Ars Technica, the agency has only placed firm orders for three missions and can purchase individual flights from Boeing or SpaceX as needed.

Keeping the program on track will likely come down to Boeing, which is on the hook for any redesigns required to address Starliner’s helium leaks and faulty thrusters.

“They’ve spent ‘X.’ Will they spend ‘Y’ to get to where Boeing Starliner becomes a regular part of our crew rotation?” said Nelson. “I don’t have the answer to that, nor do I think we would have the answer now.”

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The jets are owned by billionaire entrepreneur and Polaris Dawn commander Jared Isaacman, who purchased the five-day orbital mission and two other private astronaut flights from SpaceX in 2022. Among other feats, Polaris Dawn will ascend to orbital heights not reached since the Apollo 17 astronauts in 1972 and feature the first attempt at a commercial spacewalk.

“The idea is to develop and test new technology and operations in furtherance of SpaceX’s bold vision to enable humankind to journey among the stars,” Isaacman said during a mission overview briefing on Monday.

But with those feats comes a degree of risk. At their apex, the astronauts will travel through a portion of the hazardous Van Allen radiation belts. And because the Dragon spacecraft that will carry the crew has no airlock, all four astronauts will be exposed to the vacuum of space during the historic spacewalk.

Polaris Dawn is scheduled to launch no earlier than 3:38 a.m. EDT on Monday within a four-hour window from KSC’s Launch Complex 39-A. Earlier this week, the Dragon capsule was transported to the pad, where teams are mating it with a Falcon 9 booster that will make its fourth flight.

Joining Isaacman will be mission pilot Scott “Kidd” Poteet, a longtime friend and coworker of the Shift4 Payments CEO. Poteet served as mission director for Inspiration4, a 2021 orbital mission—also purchased from SpaceX by Isaacman—that featured the first all-civilian crew.

Accompanying them will be the first SpaceX employees to actually fly to space—mission specialists Sarah Gillis and Anna Menon. Gillis, a SpaceX engineer and astronaut trainer, has prepared several NASA crews that have reached the final frontier and was Isaacman’s instructor for Inspiration4. Menon, the company’s lead space operations engineer, will also serve as Polaris Dawn’s medical officer.

This week, crewmembers will conduct a refresher on the mission’s nearly 40 planned experiments, dry dress rehearsal, and launch readiness review. They will spend a maximum of five days orbiting the Earth before splashing down at one of seven locations off the coast of Florida.

Great Heights

Polaris Dawn will waste no time achieving its objectives, beginning with a historic climb on day one.

Hitching a ride on Falcon 9, Dragon will reach space in about 10 minutes and within hours will begin to pass through the inner regions of the Van Allen Belts—a treacherous zone where the risk of damage from radiation is high.

“The Earth’s magnetosphere traps the high energy radiation particles and shields the Earth from the solar storms and the constantly streaming solar wind that can damage technology as well as people living on Earth,” according to NASA. “These trapped particles form two belts of radiation, known as the Van Allen Belts, that surround the Earth like enormous donuts.”

Dragon will ascend to an oval orbit with an apogee of 870 miles, more than three times higher than the International Space Station. It would be the highest orbital altitude reached by humans in half a century.

“Generally speaking, vehicles don’t like radiation, so that’s why we’re going to stay there for the shortest amount of time that’s necessary to gather the data we want,” said Isaacman.

In that time, however, the crew will perform plenty of experiments, leveraging the unique high-radiation environment to potentially learn from it. The Polaris program and SpaceX have partnered with more than 30 institutions around the world to perform the research, which will focus largely on human health.

“We are born into 1G,” said Menon. “When you go into 0G, whether it’s for five days or a nine-month trip to Mars, things change. You have bone density loss, you have vision changes, you have severe motion sickness, and we don’t have answers for all of that.”

To search for them, the astronauts will don special contact lenses that measure the pressure inside of their eyes and will test ways to reduce the disorientation experienced when returning to Earth, for example.

Research will continue throughout the mission. On the fourth day, the crew will test out a specially designed communication system in Dragon’s trunk, which will use laser beams to communicate with SpaceX Starlink satellites as they zip through space. According to Gillis, the demonstration will be livestreamed and worth tuning into, though she did not get into specifics.

Polaris Dawn is also a charitable endeavor, aiming to raise money for St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital. Menon, for example, will debut a children’s book she wrote, the proceeds for which will go to cancer research, during day two of the flight. The SpaceX engineer said the company has installed Starlink terminals at hospitals nationwide to support remote medicine capabilities.

And in a fundraising partnership with Doritos, Polaris Dawn’s cargo will include a container of chips. According to its website, the initiative has raised $500,000. But there won’t be any sticky fingers—the classic Doritos “dust” has been replaced by a special oil-based coating designed to retain flavor.

Isaacman on Monday said Polaris Dawn has already raised “millions” for St. Jude and that he plans to continue the partnership for the Polaris II and Polaris III missions. Inspiration4 raised more than a quarter of a billion for the charity.

Suit Up

Reaching the Van Allen Belts would be a huge feat. But that’s arguably the second-most important—and risky—mission objective.

On the third day of the flight, two of the astronauts will don specially designed SpaceX extravehicular activity (EVA) spacesuits and exit Dragon. They will remain attached to the spacecraft—at one point by just their feet—using mobility aids to maneuver around. The vehicle will be oriented to shield the crew from direct sunlight.

The entire process, from venting to repressurization, will take about two hours and will be livestreamed. Each astronaut will spend 15 to 20 minutes outside the capsule.

“It will look like we’re doing a little bit of a dance,” said Isaacman, “…[but] we’re going through a test matrix on the suit. And the idea is to learn as much as we possibly can about this suit and get it back to the engineers to inform future suit design evolutions.”

But there’s a catch: Dragon does not have an airlock, which means all four crewmembers will be exposed to the vacuum of space.

To remedy this, they will perform a process known as “pre-breathing” beginning just one hour after reaching orbit. The procedure will acclimate the astronauts to a low-pressure environment by gradually reducing the pressure inside the capsule. According to Menon, the idea is to “slowly pull nitrogen out of our body and reduce our risk of decompression sickness.”

On the day of the spacewalk, their spacesuits will be pressurized with 100 percent oxygen for a final pre-breathe. The entire process will take about 45 hours.

Per Isaacman, the spacewalk portion of Polaris Dawn took up the bulk of mission planning, in part due to the development of SpaceX’s EVA suits.

The suits are an evolution of the company’s current apparel, which is designed to be worn only inside Dragon. The upgraded digs feature added mobility and materials pulled from Falcon 9’s trunk and interstage. A 3D-printed helmet includes a heads-up display, which shows spacesuit pressure, temperature, and humidity, as well as a clock to track the astronauts’ time in the void. The suit’s temperature can even be controlled using a dial.

“You might think that we would be extremely cold out in the vacuum of space, and actually we’re more concerned about being too warm,” said Menon.

The suits have undergone an “incredibly expensive testing campaign” with the crew, which has spent about 100 hours wearing them. Because the hardware is “constantly evolving,” per Menon, it could not be tested in a pool. Instead, the astronauts used special harnesses to simulate weightlessness and wore heavy down suits—the kind you’d need at the top of Mount Everest—over their EVA suits.

“We’re really trying to create an environment that doesn’t have convection, looking at thermals, looking at what we’ll actually experience in these suits,” said Menon. “We’ve covered everything from lifecycle testing, pressure testing, [micrometeoroid and orbital debris] testing, extreme hot and cold testing, [and] an entire campaign on [electrostatic discharge] and flammability testing.”

That level of rigor extended to the Dragon capsule, which itself required a few key modifications for the mission. SpaceX added a nitrogen repressurization system, for example, and made upgrades to the spacecraft’s environmental sensors and life support system.

“This includes adding a lot more oxygen to the spacecraft so we can feed oxygen to four suits through umbilicals for the full duration of the spacewalk,” said Menon.

Outside Dragon’s hatch, engineers installed what SpaceX calls the Skywalker, a structure that will help the astronauts find their footing in zero gravity. Atop the Skywalker is a new camera that will capture footage of the spacewalk. Handholds and footholds were added to the capsule’s interior.

In addition, all of that hardware has been “baked out” in a thermal vacuum chamber, Menon said, to burn off chemicals that could produce toxic gas when the capsule is vented.

Thousands of Hours

The astronauts have already prepared extensively for the spacewalk. They recently walked through the entire prebreathe process and venting and repressurization sequence, for example, inside the vacuum chamber at Johnson Space Center.

But that was only the tip of the iceberg.

“I can tell you without a doubt this has been some of the most challenging training that I’ve ever experienced, and I could not imagine a more qualified crew than these three individuals,” said Poteet, a retired U.S. Air Force fighter pilot and member of the Thunderbirds.

The astronauts performed zero-gravity flights in the vacuum chamber, trained in a centrifuge to experience g-forces, and spent time in an altitude chamber to get familiar with symptoms of hypoxia—a condition caused by low oxygen levels in the body. The crew also used a pressure chamber to practice many of the experiments they will conduct in space back on Earth. Gillis and Menon underwent medical training at partner hospitals to be qualified to care for the team.

Each crewmember also spent about 2,000 hours in a simulator, poring over spacecraft and system manuals, communication methods, crew resource management, and contingency scenarios.

“To put this into perspective, I flew fighters for 20 years—I accomplished about 1,500 hours in the simulator training for combat,” said Poteet.

Another key component of training was, as Poteet put it, “getting comfortable in uncomfortable scenarios.” Over the past few years, the crew has gone scuba diving and skydiving, flown fighter jets, and even summited Cotopaxi in Ecuador, a nearly 20,000-foot peak.

“When it’s a multiday journey to get to the summit, you’re dehydrated, you’re hungry, you’re grouchy…it sucks,” said Poteet. “And you learn a lot about yourself under this stressful environment, and you learn a lot about each other.”

‘The 737 for Human Spaceflight’

Though it was purchased by an outside stakeholder, Polaris Dawn has some major implications for SpaceX.

For one, it will be the company’s first mission with crew since Falcon 9 was grounded by the FAA in July. The rocket was quickly cleared for a return to action and has since completed several Starlink launches.

But the mission’s success—or lack thereof—could also inform the timeline of SpaceX’s Starship, the largest and most powerful rocket ever built.

Polaris Dawn is the first of three missions purchased by Isaacman. Little is known about the second, Polaris II, which will also use Dragon and Falcon 9. But Polaris III is intended to be the debut human spaceflight mission for Starship, which so far has completed four orbital test flights.

“It could very well be the [Boeing] 737 for human spaceflight someday,” said Isaacman. “But it’ll certainly be the vehicle that will return humans to the moon and then on to Mars and beyond.”

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has grand ambitions for Starship, such as ferrying humans to Mars in order to create a colony. But they will hinge on the company remaining on schedule—and, hopefully, learning as much as possible about its EVA spacesuits during Polaris Dawn.

Within one week of Dragon’s splashdown, the firm plans to host a Polaris Dawn mission debrief and question-and-answer session on X Spaces.

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The semireusable space capsule is in the middle of its inaugural crewed flight test (CFT), a test mission that was intended to last around eight days but could be stretched to eight months if NASA decides against flying it home with crew. In that case, SpaceX’s Crew Dragon, which is scheduled to fly another crew of astronauts to the ISS on September 24, would return Williams and Wilmore in February, the space agency said last week.

Starliner was intended to fly the astronauts to the ISS for a few days of research and evaluations before returning them to Earth a few days later. But on its way to the orbital laboratory, NASA identified five reaction control system (RCS) thrusters on the capsule’s service module—an expendable component—that did not fire at full strength.

The decision was made to keep Starliner docked to the space station while NASA and Boeing crews performed testing and data analysis on the ground at White Sands Test Facility in New Mexico, as well as a few hot fire tests of the thrusters on orbit.

Officials have said that the machinery is now working at or near expected levels, but engineers are still working to determine what caused the issue and ensure it doesn’t reappear on the return trip. NASA has brought in propulsion experts from different branches, including the Glenn Research Center, Goddard Space Flight Center, and Jet Propulsion Laboratory, to gather outside opinions.

As a result, Starliner’s return has been delayed several times, most recently after NASA announced that a flight readiness review would be pushed from this week to next. That meeting will pull together stakeholders from across the agency in order to make a final decision on how to return the crew. If stakeholders cannot settle on a plan, the decision will be kicked up the ladder to NASA Associate Administrator Jim Free or Administrator Bill Nelson.

Now, according to Ken Bowersox, associate administrator of the agency’s Space Operations Mission Directorate, the flight readiness review will take place either at the end of next week or the start of the following.

According to NASA chief astronaut Joe Acaba, Wilmore and Williams will have to abide by whatever stakeholders decide.

“They will do what we ask them to do,” Acaba said Wednesday. “This is not really a preference thing. They are going to wait for us to analyze the data and come up with a decision.”

Absent from Wednesday’s briefing were officials from Boeing, but officials said company representatives have been involved in key meetings and data analysis.

If NASA opts to use SpaceX’s Dragon, it could send the spacecraft up with two crewmembers instead of four, as planned, to leave room for the astronauts to hitch a ride when the mission concludes in February.

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Not according to the company, which took to social media platform X, owned by SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, to rebut a report published Monday.

Sources within the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) and the federal Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) shared with CNBC previously unreported notices and investigative records, which allege that SpaceX violated several clean water regulations. The company employs a water deluge system, common at launchpads such as Florida’s Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, to absorb heat and vibrations from firing rocket engines.

But according to CNBC, the firm’s use of that system this year—including during the third orbital test flight of Starship, the most powerful rocket ever built, and the Super Heavy booster—may be discharging industrial wastewater without TCEQ or EPA permission.

SpaceX swiftly refuted the CNBC report in a lengthy post on X, characterizing the story as “factually inaccurate.”

According to the company, the water deluge system uses potable, or drinking, water and has been authorized for operation by both the TCEQ and EPA, which filed their notices one week and five months ago, respectively.

“Throughout our ongoing coordination with both TCEQ and the EPA, we have explicitly asked if operation of the deluge system needed to stop and we were informed that operations could continue,” SpaceX said.

Neither agency immediately responded to FLYING’s request for comment.

Typically, a launch provider must be compliant with state and federal laws to obtain launch permissions from the FAA. On Monday, the aviation regulator postponed several meetings intended for stakeholders to provide feedback on SpaceX’s proposal to launch Starship from Starbase as many as 25 times per year. The agency did not provide a reason for the postponements.

“The FAA apologizes for any inconvenience,” it said. “Public meetings will be rescheduled; however, the docket remains open to receive public comments.”

Conflicting Accounts

Interestingly, CNBC and SpaceX cite the same sources to make their respective claims, raising questions about whether one party received bad information.

Starbase’s deluge system was installed after Starship’s maiden flight in April 2023, the impact of which sent debris flying miles away, led to an FAA investigation, and brought a lawsuit against the agency and SpaceX from five environmental groups. It was first tested in July with TCEQ personnel onsite, SpaceX said.

But regulators told CNBC the firm skipped a crucial step in the permitting process related to wastewater management. In its notice to SpaceX, TCEQ said it received 14 complaints claiming that the deluge system was harming the surrounding environment, including one last August alleging that Starbase was discharging industrial wastewater without a permit. 

Last month, a TCEQ investigation found that SpaceX did so four times between March and July. According to a SpaceX permit filing viewed by CNBC, some of that water contained concentrations of mercury that exceed water quality limits.

SpaceX on Monday, however, painted a very different picture. According to the company, no water samples tested were found to have mercury levels above EPA limits. It elaborated on Tuesday with another post claiming that the figures the outlet viewed were simply incorrect.

“While there may be a typo in one table of the initial TCEQ’s public version of the permit application, the rest of the application and the lab reports clearly states that levels of Mercury found in non-stormwater discharge associated with the water deluge system are well below state and federal water quality criteria,” the company said.

The firm flatly denied that any industrial wastewater is spewing from Starbase, claiming that the deluge system’s potable water is never used in or exposed to industrial processes.

It also said the landing pad is power washed prior to activating the system and that soil, air, and water samples are analyzed by an independent laboratory after each use. According to the company, most of the water is either vaporized by the heat of the engines or captured in special ponds, with only a tiny amount escaping the pad.

SpaceX further claimed it is well within its right to operate the system.

The EPA sent the company a formal notice of violation of the Clean Water Act the day before Starship’s third test flight in March. But according to the firm, the agency made a mistake.

“When the EPA issued their administrative order in March 2024, it was done without an understanding of basic facts of the deluge system’s operation or acknowledgement that we were operating under the Texas Multi-Sector General Permit,” SpaceX said.

Per the company’s version of events, the EPA agreed to allow it to continue using the system as it worked toward obtaining an individual permit from TCEQ, “because the deluge system has always complied with common conditions set by an individual permit, and causes no harm to the environment.”

It submitted a permit application on July 1 and said the agency is expected to issue a draft individual permit and agreed compliance order this week.

If SpaceX is ultimately found to be in violation of TCEQ and EPA rules, it could have a ripple effect on the Starship program, which is under pressure to meet obligations for NASA’s Artemis moon mission program as well as commercial customers.

According to the company, the rocket is ready to launch on its fifth test flight pending regulatory approval, but that may be difficult to obtain if it isn’t compliant with regulations. The firm will need to complete several more Starship test flights before the spacecraft is authorized for service missions.

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That’s not the beginning of a bad joke, but rather a description of SpaceX’s newly announced human spaceflight mission, which as soon as this year will send four astronauts to the ends of the Earth for the first time in history.

The company on Monday unveiled Fram2—a mission to explore the planet’s polar regions, over which no spacecraft has ever flown directly. During the three-to-five-day mission, which will launch from Florida atop SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, the crew will enter a 90-degree polar orbit and observe the Arctic and Antarctic wilderness through a cupola fitted to the company’s Dragon capsule.

No crewed spacecraft has ever reached an orbital path higher than 65 degrees, a feat the Soviet Vostok 6 mission, which carried the first woman to space, achieved in 1963. Typically, such orbits are occupied by smaller satellites, while larger spacecraft such as the International Space Station fly closer to the equator.

The expedition, named after the ship Fram used by Norwegian explorers to reach the poles in the late 19th century, will be Dragon’s sixth commercial astronaut mission and third free-flying mission. The spacecraft has flown three private missions to the ISS for customer Axiom Space, completed the Inspiration4 private orbital spaceflight on behalf of billionaire entrepreneur Jared Isaacman, and will launch another mission for Isaacman—Polaris Dawn—as soon as this month.

“Polaris Program, Inspiration4, Axiom, & now Fram2 showcase what commercial missions can achieve thanks to @SpaceX’s reusability and NASA’s vision with the commercial crew program,” Isaacman said in a post on social media platform X, which is owned by SpaceX CEO Elon Musk. “All just small steps towards unlocking the last great frontier.”

Fram2 similarly is backed by a wealthy CEO, entrepreneur and adventurer Chun Wang, who made his fortune from Bitcoin mining. Wang purchased the mission for an undisclosed amount and will serve as commander.

According to his profile on X, Wang is an avid traveler who has visited half of the world’s countries and territories. But he has grander aspirations.

“I’ve read many sci-fi stories about the first human missions to Mars, usually led by NASA or some fictional government,” Wang said in a post on X. “Rarely does anyone dare to imagine such a mission may be carried out privately. But now, I increasingly believe that someday we will reach Mars—and it may be a person, or a company, not a nation, who gets there.”

Accompanying Wang will be commander Jannicke Mikkelsen of Norway, pilot Eric Philips of Australia, and mission specialist Rabea Rogge of Germany, who told the website Everyday Astronaut they befriended the blockchain entrepreneur on a trek to the North Pole. All four crew members will be making their first trip to the final frontier.

Mikkelson is a filmmaker who seeks out remote or hazardous filming locations and served as payload specialist on the 2019 One More Orbit mission—a record-breaking polar circumnavigation flight on the 50th anniversary of Apollo 11.

According to its website, Fram2 will shatter One More Orbit’s high water mark of 46 hours and 40 minutes, achieved in a Qatar Executive Gulfstream G650ER ultra-long-range business jet, by flying from the north to south pole in just 46 minutes.

Philips, a polar adventurer and guide, knows those regions well, having completed several ski expeditions. But viewing them from orbit has never been possible, even for astronauts on the ISS, to whom they appear invisible.

Fram2 will orbit at about 264-280 miles above Earth, allowing the crew to study strange green and purple light emissions known as Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancements (STEVE), atmospheric phenomena that resemble auroras. Researchers have yet to determine what causes the optical abnormalities. The mission will weigh input from space physicists and citizen scientists alike.

“Having spent much of my adult life in the polar regions this is an incredible opportunity to view the Arctic and Antarctica from space, in particular Antarctica which will be fully lit at this time of year,” said Philips.

Rogge similarly has a fascination with extreme environments, having researched ocean robotics in the Arctic in pursuit of ways to improve the technology. She will get the chance to study tools that could prepare humans for future missions to Mars and beyond, “from capturing the first human x-ray images in space to Just-in-Time training tools to the effects of spaceflight on behavioral health,” according to Fram2’s webpage. The crew will also study what happens to the human body after weeks or months in space.

“Wang aims to use the mission to highlight the crew’s explorational spirit, bring a sense of wonder and curiosity to the larger public, and highlight how technology can help push the boundaries of exploration of Earth and through the mission’s research,” SpaceX said in an update on its website.

Since 2020, SpaceX has flown 50 astronauts to low-Earth orbit across 13 human spaceflight missions, more than any private company. These include the three Axiom Space missions, Inspiration4, and eight NASA Commercial Crew rotation missions to the ISS, as well as the Demo-2 test flight.

Competitors Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic, meanwhile, have each completed seven commercial human spaceflights.

All three companies, in addition to NASA contractors such as Boeing and Northrop Grumman, are part of an emerging trend that could soon become the norm. NASA has predicted that when the ISS is retired at the end of the decade, it could become one of many customers enlisting the services of private spaceflight companies, rather than a provider of those services.

That could mean more private astronaut missions financed by millionaire and billionaire backers.

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NASA officials on Wednesday held a media briefing, during which stakeholders revealed that confidence in Starliner’s ability to return the astronauts is waning. According to Ken Bowersox, associate administrator of the agency’s Space Operations Mission Directorate, teams are “getting more serious about evaluating our other options.”

The primary alternative, officials said, is to fly SpaceX’s upcoming Crew-9 mission with two astronauts rather than four, leaving room for Wilmore and Williams to hitch a ride when that mission concludes in February. They estimated that NASA will make a decision by mid-August.

“We could take either path,” Bowersox said.

Boeing and SpaceX representatives were not present on the call, the intention of which, NASA said, was to provide the agency’s perspective on the mission.

On its way up to the ISS, Starliner suffered two main issues that are giving crews pause over how to return the astronauts. A set of helium leaks that emerged on the spacecraft have since stabilized, according to NASA. However, the other issue, which involves five faulty reaction control system (RCS) thrusters on Starliner’s expendable service module, is still being evaluated.

Officials on Wednesday said ground testing of an identical thruster at White Sands Test Facility in New Mexico revealed that the problem is linked to a tiny Teflon seal on an oxidizer poppet, which controls the flow of propellant into the thruster. Teams theorize that the extreme heat the thrusters experienced during Starliner’s rendezvous with the ISS caused the Teflon to expand, inhibiting flow and causing them to fire at weaker-than-expected levels.

According to Steve Stich, who manages NASA’s Commercial Crew program, a July 27 Starliner hot fire test showed that the affected thrusters—with the exception of one, which has been deactivated—are now firing as expected. This has led engineers to hypothesize that the teflon seals contracted and are no longer blocking propellant from reaching the thrusters. Now, the task is to understand how and why.

Teams are working to better understand how those seals might behave during Starliner’s return trip, but there is not yet consensus on whether they are good to go. According to Bowersox and Stich, there is internal disagreement about returning the astronauts on Starliner versus Dragon, which was amplified with the discovery of the faulty teflon seal.

“We heard enough voices [on the program control board] that the decision is not clear,” said Bowersox.

The officials explained that Boeing, which on Friday asserted it has high confidence in Starliner, is viewing risk based on previous missions and flight performance, while NASA wants to understand the root cause of the issue before it has confidence in returning with crew. Ultimately, NASA administrator Bill Nelson will have the final say.

“Reasonable people could have different views on which path we should take,” said Bowersox, who acknowledged that the chance of an uncrewed return has risen in recent weeks. “I don’t think anyone has taken a view that you could prove is wrong or right.”

NASA will have until mid-August to decide whether the Dragon contingency plan should be put into action.

The ISS has two docking modules that are occupied by Starliner and SpaceX’s Crew-8 capsule, meaning Starliner would need to autonomously undock before Crew-9 launches on September 24. Crew-8 would then depart the space station with the crew of NASA’s Expedition 71, and the Crew-9 Dragon would take its place, leaving one docking port open for the next SpaceX cargo mission. Wilmore and Williams would stay for the duration of Crew-9, flying home with the two-person Expedition 72 crew in February.

The problem, though, is that Starliner’s flight software is not currently capable of an autonomous undocking despite having achieved the feat during an uncrewed mission in 2022.

For the CFT, the software was configured for a crewed undocking, as per the mission profile. Now, Boeing and NASA must modify the mission data load to reconfigure the system for an uncrewed undocking, which sources say could take up to one month. NASA said the spacecraft has built-in fault tolerance that would prevent it from colliding with the ISS should its thrusters not perform as expected during that maneuver.

The agency said it has been in daily communication with Wilmore and Williams and that the astronauts are prepared for whatever path it ultimately takes. If they stay along with Crew-9, they will assist personnel with scientific research, including spacewalks. Additional materials, such as spacesuits, would be sent up with the Dragon.

“Butch and Suni are ready to support whatever we need to do,” said Dana Weigel, manager of NASA’s ISS program.

Officials insist that despite the internal conflict around Starliner, the vehicle could still be used to return the astronauts in the case of a contingency on the ISS. In those scenarios, Bowersox said, NASA is willing to tolerate a higher level of risk—one that is jeopardizing teams’ ability to complete the CFT as intended.

The worst-case scenario, according to NASA, would be if the helium leak and thruster issues converge during Starliner’s deorbit burn, the maneuver that will place it back in Earth’s atmosphere. An unlikely combination of technical failures could impact the ability of the RCS thrusters to maintain the capsule’s orbital trajectory, though agency research predicts that it could complete the maneuver even with multiple failures.

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