Honeywell Aerospace Archives - FLYING Magazine https://cms.flyingmag.com/tag/honeywell-aerospace/ The world's most widely read aviation magazine Fri, 26 Apr 2024 12:56:00 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.1 Honeywell Crafts Safer Approaches Through Technology https://www.flyingmag.com/honeywell-crafts-safer-approaches-through-technology/ Fri, 26 Apr 2024 12:54:35 +0000 https://www.flyingmag.com/?p=201269 Aerospace giant has expanded its navigation database to offer FMG-guided visual procedures as a stand-alone option.

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“Can you accept the visual?”

It is not uncommon for air traffic control to pose this question to pilots on IFR flight plans approaching certain airports when the weather is VFR. In daylight, when the visibility is good, the winds calm, and the pilot familiar with the airport—and the approach is a straight in—the visual is no big deal.

But throw in weather, fatigue, low light, pilot unfamiliarity, and a circle to land, and it’s a different event.

Honeywell Aerospace is trying to mitigate these risks, expanding its navigation database to offer flight management system (FMS) guided visual procedures as a stand-alone option.

According to Jim Johnson, senior manager of flight technical services at Honeywell, the visual approaches are created in collaboration with Jeppesen. The instructions for the guided visuals look like Jeppesen approach plates but carry the caveat “advisory guidance only” and “visual approach only.” In addition, the symbology on the approaches differs in a handful of ways.

“The FMS-guided visual provides a lateral and vertical path from a fix fairly close to the airport all the way down to the runway,” says Johnson. “You can hand fly them or couple them to the autopilot.”

The RNAV H approach into Runway 1 at Teterboro creates a pathway to assist pilots navigating visually in a very congested area. [Courtesy: Jeppesen]

Visual into KTEB

One of the first guided visual approaches was created for the descent to Runway 1 at Teterboro Airport (KTEB) in New Jersey.

The airport sits in a very industrialized area with the runway blending into warehouses and business parks. Honeywell provides a video of the visual approach on its website that illustrates the value of having that helping hand. Having the extra vertical and lateral guidance from a mathematically created visual procedure allows pilots to better manage their approach, configuring the aircraft in an expedient manner to avoid “coming in high and hot” in an improperly configured aircraft.

This is quite helpful when the aircraft needs to circle to land, says Carey Miller, pilot and senior manager of technical sales at Honeywell.

“Going into Runway 1 at Teterboro on the visual, you are not aligned with the VASI,” Miller says. “There is no vertical guidance, which can lead to a dive to the runway. Add a moonless night or gusty winds, and it can be quite challenging. Not being able to see the airport is a detriment to your energy management. The visual approaches, when coupled to the autopilot, eliminate the guesswork and the overbanking tendency that can lead to stalls.”

Adds Johnson: “The aircraft will fly constant radius turns, [and] you will be on the same ground track every time because the computer knows how to manage the vertical and lateral path. It gets rid of the pilot drifting down or turning early because of the winds.”

Honeywell’s Anthem integrated flight deck has driven a cascade of upcoming solutions for aircraft, including the Pilatus PC-12. [Courtesy: Honeywell Aerospace]

Airspace Guidance

The guided visual procedures created thus far have come from suggestions from Honeywell customers, including a visual approach to Chicago Executive/Prospect Heights Airport in Wheeling, Illinois (KPWK). KPWK is in Class D airspace, 8 nm from Chicago O’Hare International Airport (KORD). The Class B airspace for KORD sits above KPWK. There is a V-shaped cutout with various altitudes over KPWK.

The guided visual can help the pilot avoid clipping the Class B airspace during the circle to land—and the dreaded phone call with ATC that results.

The Creative Process

Each approach is created using software tools that take into account the airspace and terrain at the airport, then test flown in simulators to check for flyability.

According to Johnson, the suggestions for where to offer the guided visual approaches come from their customers.

“There are a lot of secondary and regional airports in the U.S. that have both terrain and airspace considerations that make visual approaches very challenging,” says Johnson. “For example, Van Nuys, California [KVNY], has both airspace challenges and a ridge nearby.”

In some cases, the team may opt to create a visual approach as an overlay to improve safety at airports where closely spaced simultaneous approaches are in use. As this issue was going to press, Honeywell was working on an approach to Runway 28R/L at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO). The visual approach has a briefing sheet with textual guidance, and Honeywell has literally drawn a picture of it.

During development each procedure is flown in a simulator, using a specific briefing sheet that is checked and double-checked for accuracy and usability. Each approach has the ability to be coupled with the autopilot.

Miller cautions it is important to recognize that the visual procedures are not considered instrument approaches in the traditional sense.

“Do not request it as an approach, because ATC will not be aware of it,” Miller says. This information is emphasized on the procedure briefing sheet that accompanies each guided visual approach.

The guided visual approach is loaded in the FMS just like an instrument approach. The pilots can access them with a few pushes of a button, just as they do Jeppesen approaches.

“To use the visual approaches, the customer needs to have a Honeywell-equipped aircraft, and in addition to the FMS database, for an additional $2,000 per year they receive the visual approaches,” says Miller.

To request an approach, contact Honeywell at FTS@honeywell.com. It takes approximately four weeks to put one together.

Synthetic vision is displayed on many PFDs today, but the charted visual approaches introduced will aid those pilots without them. [Courtesy: Honeywell Aerospace]

Coming Full Circle

In many ways, the visual approach procedures represent a modern treatment to the first approaches created by Elrey Jeppesen—yes, that Jeppesen—who became a pilot in 1925 at the age of 18. At the time, there was no such thing as maps purpose-built for aviation. Pilots relied on road maps—which often weren’t terribly accurate, following railroad tracks from town to town or by pilotage and dead reckoning.

In 1925, Jeppesen went to work as a survey pilot and by 1930 was working for Boeing Air Transport, the precursor to United Airlines. This was decades before air traffic control and electronic navigation systems were created. Jeppesen bought a small notebook and filled it with information about the routes he flew. In it there were drawings of runways and airports and information that pilots needed to know, like the elevation of water towers, telephone numbers of farmers who would provide weather reports, and dimensions of the runway and its distance from the nearest city.

In 1934, this evolved into the Jeppesen Company and the notebook into the en route charts and terminal area procedures we know today. Much of Jeppesen’s flying was done in the Pacific Northwest. The Museum of Flight in Seattle is the keeper of the Elrey B. Jeppesen Collection, and for many years there was a replica of his first notebook on display in the Red Barn.

We think Captain Jepp would appreciate how far the approaches he inspired have come.


This column first appeared in the January-February 2024/Issue 945 of FLYING’s print edition.

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Boom Supersonic Chooses Honeywell Anthem Flight Deck for Overture Airliner https://www.flyingmag.com/boom-supersonic-chooses-honeywell-anthem-flight-deck-for-overture-airliner/ Thu, 14 Dec 2023 18:14:16 +0000 https://www.flyingmag.com/?p=190603 The Anthem system will be specially adjusted to suit the Overture’s mission requirements.

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Boom Supersonic has chosen the Honeywell Anthem integrated flight deck and its modular avionics platform for use in the Overture supersonic airliner the company is developing.

Under the companies’ agreement, the flight deck will be tailored to support the Overture’s mission requirements, including “exceptional situational awareness and enhanced safety,” Boom said. The Honeywell avionics interface gives pilots continuity from simulator-based flight training through to actual flights.

The Anthem is Honeywell’s first cloud-connected flight deck and is designed to be adaptable to many aircraft types from general aviation to commercial aircraft. Honeywell first flight-tested the Anthem in a Pilatus PC-12 in May, marking an important step on the system’s path toward FAA certification.

“Honeywell has an extensive history of aerospace innovation and shares our vision of a faster future through sustainable supersonic flight,” said Blake Scholl, founder and CEO of Boom Supersonic. “We’re proud to work with Honeywell to realize one of the most advanced flight decks in the sky, with state-of-the-art technologies that reduce pilot workload and increase safety.”

Honeywell traces its history in aviation to the earliest autopilot systems. The company has been a pioneer in developing numerous cockpit systems, including synthetic vision and heads-up displays. Boom said Honeywell is among several tier one suppliers it has tapped to support its Overture program.

“For decades, Honeywell has supported aircraft programs that build the future for aviation,” said Vipul Gupta, president of electronic solutions at Honeywell Aerospace. “We are looking forward to partnering with Boom to usher in a new generation of supersonic travel.”

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Honeywell Successfully Tests Autonomous Detect-and-Avoid System https://www.flyingmag.com/honeywell-successfully-tests-autonomous-detect-and-avoid-system/ Wed, 02 Feb 2022 20:16:37 +0000 https://www.flyingmag.com/?p=116109 The “leap forward in safety” could have far-ranging impacts across aviation, including air taxis.

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After a series of drone test flights described as the “ultimate game of chicken,” Honeywell (NASDAQ: HON) announced success Wednesday with its autonomous detect-and-avoid (DAA) radar system.

The recent tests, located near Phoenix, Arizona, involved a drone piloted by Honeywell’s IntuVue RDR-84K radar system that repeatedly swerved around other UAVs. The system was able to detect airborne traffic and, on its own, decide on a course of action, Honeywell says. Next, the system took over navigation and piloted the drone to safety using its onboard processor. 

“We set up the ultimate game of ‘chicken,’ but the RDR-84K simply wouldn’t let these aircraft get into danger,” says Sapan Shah, product manager, advanced air mobility, Honeywell Aerospace, in a statement. 

Honeywell says the radar system, which is the size of a paperback book, had previously proven its ability to detect flying objects without transponders while mounted on helicopters and drones. The new tests marked the first time the system performed the avoidance function without human intervention, the company says. 

Despite its small size, Honeywell says its radar unit can see targets 3 kilometers away. [Courtesy Honeywell]

Why It Matters

“This is a leap forward in safety that could have far-ranging impacts across aviation,” Shah says. 

More immediately, such technology could improve safety across the growing drone industry, especially as more unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are authorized to fly beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS).

From a long-term perspective, this functionality is key to the future of pilotless aviation, particularly the emerging electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) air taxi industry. 

The RDR-84K would support eVTOL applications, “both to reduce pilot workload as well as support the autonomous operations,” Shah told FLYING

Although “regulations and requirements around DAA for air taxis are still being developed,” Shah says RDR-84K is built so that it can be scaled to meet the needs of air taxis.”

Honeywell is one of several companies developing autonomous systems that use multiple sensors to detect and track moving obstacles. Engineers are trying to design these systems to quickly analyze data from the sensors and then guide onboard flight control systems to avoid the obstacles. Building machines that can identify potential obstacles under infinite flight scenarios and respond safely will be extremely challenging, to say the least.

Many eVTOL aircraft that are currently undergoing flight test campaigns are flying autonomously, including EHang’s 216 and Wisk Aero’s Cora. Other eVTOL developers who are planning to operate air carrier services intend to launch initially with pilots on board and then transition to autonomous flight years later. 

Aircraft developers say autonomous eVTOLs will make the industry more efficient and profitable by making it possible to fly safely while scaling up operations to utilize huge fleets with thousands of aircraft. If this really is the future of eVTOL operations, sophisticated detect-and-avoid technology will need to be perfected, along with new ways of managing air traffic.

Details About the Test Flights

Despite its small size, Honeywell says its radar unit can see targets 3 kilometers away, using a system of overlapping beams—called monopulse technology—to improve accuracy and eliminate ground clutter. 

Operating in a desert test area, two quadcopter drones on autopilot flew directly at each other at an altitude of 300 feet agl. One drone, equipped with the RDR-84K, detected the other drone (which did not have a transponder) and evaluated its flight path. 

After calculating an avoidance maneuver, the system took over navigation without any input from humans on the ground, “flying left, right, up, down or stopping midair, depending on winds and other factors,” according to Honeywell. 

When collision was no longer possible, the radar released control of the drone, and the autopilot guided it back to its original course, Honeywell says. 

Next, Honeywell made the tests more challenging. They directed the intruder drone to approach from below, which would allow it to blend into ground clutter. They also directed the intruder to fly at the radar drone from offset angles, which tested the radar’s peripheral vision and high angular detection capabilities. 

“The radar handled everything we threw at it,” says Larry Surace, lead systems engineer for the RDR-84K, Honeywell Aerospace. “It saw the danger immediately and successfully executed multiple avoidance maneuvers.”

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5 Ways eVTOL Avionics Will Change How Pilots Fly https://www.flyingmag.com/5-ways-evtol-avionics-will-change-how-pilots-fly/ Thu, 30 Dec 2021 16:45:21 +0000 https://www.flyingmag.com/?p=109373 The post 5 Ways eVTOL Avionics Will Change How Pilots Fly appeared first on FLYING Magazine.

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Although the fledgling electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) industry faces a long path to aircraft certification and entering service, avionics giants are already defining the future of this new aviation sector. 

No pressure. They’re just taking on the challenge of merging electronics and visual displays—across flight controls, navigation, communication, fuel systems, and threat detection—for an entirely new form of air transportation. 

Things are just getting started, but it’s already clear that avionics for these new aircraft types will change how pilots receive their instrument data and how they interact with it. 

Obviously, integrated display panels for eVTOLs will be a far cry from the old six-pack steam gauges of the 20th century. If all goes as planned, they’ll soon differ significantly from the glass cockpits we know today. 

Let’s take a look at five ways eVTOL avionics will change how pilots fly. 

1. Pilots of eVTOLs will use avionics that are easier to use.

Flying small, electric, hovering aircraft at low altitudes through a complex urban landscape will require high levels of performance by pilots as well as their avionics. 

In Los Angeles alone, Joby Aviation is envisioning 300 eVTOLs performing multiple flights each day to more than 20 destinations, according to investor materials. Overall, Morgan Stanley is projecting in a best-case scenario that Joby’s entire fleet could grow to as many as 14,000 aircraft in a decade.  

Industry insiders say eVTOL data sets must be consolidated. To facilitate successful pilot training, visual displays and functionality must be intuitive, smart, and simple to operate.  

“They better be, because otherwise there’s just not going to be enough pilots that can fly them,” says Dan Schwinn, founder, president and CEO of Avidyne Corp. “If we think we’re going to create hundreds of thousands of super humans to fly these things, it’s just not realistic,” Schwinn tells FLYING.

Avidyne and Garmin (NYSE:GRMN) are just two of many avionics manufacturers actively working with eVTOL companies on their integrated flight decks. 

Alex Bennett, Garmin’s director of aviation OEM and defense sales, says eVTOL avionics will make things simpler by alerting pilots about the most important data point at the time. It’s referred to as the “limiting factor.”

“So, it’s no longer up to the pilot to go through and think: ‘Here’s what all my temperatures, altitude, and my flying conditions are. Which gauge do I need to be paying attention to?’ Bennett tells FLYING. “The avionics are just going to say, ‘Hey, here’s the limiting factor. This is the one you have to pay attention to right now.”

Joby Aviation chose Garmin’s G3000 avionics system for its eVTOL aircraft. [Courtesy: Joby Aviation]

2. Pilots will be using different data sets during eVTOL flights.

Key avionics data sets specific to eVTOLs will include: 

• available battery power

• available range

• motor temperatures

• motor speeds

As always in aviation, weight matters. But this rule is even more important in a battery-powered aircraft, where batteries are pushed to their limits. As a result, weight will be extremely critical for eVTOL avionics. 

Overall aircraft weight will remain constant—obviously because it’s not burning fuel during flight. So, a pilot’s decision whether to perform a go-around at a destination airport will be based on available battery power, making this metric one of the most important in the entire avionics suite.

First iterations of eVTOLs will likely include flight decks that look familiar to many pilots. This is because some eVTOL manufacturers are already using modified off-the-shelf integrated flight decks that are proven and FAA-certificated. It’s a strategy aimed at achieving aggressive certification schedules.

“They can’t really wait for a whole new system to be developed,” Bennett says. “They have a lot of pressure to be first to market, expand their market share, and manage investor expectations.” 

California-based Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY), which has been flying full-sized prototypes of its tilt-rotor eVTOL since 2017, announced in February it will use Garmin’s G3000 as its initial avionics suite. 

“We have a very flexible system architecture that allows us to modify through configurations without actually touching the software itself,” Bennett says. Joby says it expects its air taxi to enter service in 2024. 

Future iterations of eVTOL avionics will be customized depending on the aircraft’s mission. The avionics suite of an air taxi with a mission to fly passengers on established, 25-mile routes will differ from a cargo eVTOL with a mission to deliver packages to various locations. 

3. eVTOL pilots will have help from sensors scanning all directions, all the time.

There’s a good reason why manufacturers of eVTOLs have been recruiting engineers who specialize in radar, infrared, and other types of sophisticated sensor technology. These kinds of systems will be part of the aircraft and the avionics will be showing pilots what they need to know, when they need to know it. 

Schwinn expects eVTOLs to include arrays of cameras positioned all around the aircraft, constantly monitoring its surroundings and feeding data to the avionics system. 

What the avionics system does with that data is where this gets even more interesting. 

4. Eventually eVTOL pilots will have a co-pilot named AI. 

If eVTOL succeeds and regulators allow these new aircraft to fly in the national airspace, avionics engineers have big plans for the future: artificial intelligence, or AI. 

“We’re trying to certify an AI to make it appropriate for a traffic detection system,” Schwinn says. “But the question is: how do you put an AI in there to interpret all this data and get some certification credit for it? That is the part of the puzzle that we’re working on with Daedalean.”

Daedalean AG, a Switzerland-based company that develops autonomous piloting software, has partnered with Avidyne to develop an intelligent, camera-based system for visual positioning, landing guidance, traffic detection, and hazard avoidance. Schwinn envisions a system that interprets data inputs from ADS-B, radar, IR, or even LIDAR (light detection and ranging) which involves laser tech. 

How would avionics use sensor inputs in a panel display? “At some point, you may get a traffic alert,” Schwinn says. “On your avionics, you’ll see the traditional symbology, but you also see a picture of the traffic.”

Ideally, an AI system would be able to ID traffic both above or below the horizon, which is more difficult. 

Obviously, AI-assisted avionics would need to highlight potential conflict early enough for the pilot to make an avoidance maneuver. Or, in an even more futuristic scenario, the AI would actually offer resolution advisory—a suggested, specific avoidance maneuver. 

Some of this technology is already in place in other aircraft. Resolution advisory is already available in TCAS II avoidance systems. Auto TCAS, which is directly linked to the flight control system, exists on several Airbus airliner types, including the A350.

Ultimately, engineers want to develop AI-based predictive avoidance technology that will allow eVTOLs to fly autonomously, without pilots. 

The success of Garmin’s Autoland emergency avionics system has not been lost on eVTOL manufacturers. In May, Joby Aviation hired engineer Didier Papadopoulos, who was instrumental in developing the award-winning system. Autoland avionics take control of an airplane if the pilot becomes incapacitated, automatically avoiding known hazards and landing at the optimum airport. 

A similar product, Garmin’s Smart Glide, automates avionics for engine failure and other power emergencies. 

“I think [failure and emergency] automation is very much in the short term,” says Bennett. “In the long term, all that automation is just a matter of getting the aircraft to react automatically—instead of the pilot—to do that interaction.”

Avionics OEMs and eVTOL manufacturers are still defining each other’s swim lanes in terms of who is in charge of developing which systems. 

“Autopilot algorithms are developed by the avionics manufacturer,” Bennett says. “In the rotorcraft and helicopter space—especially in IFR—this has been classically owned and controlled by the OEM or aircraft manufacturer. When you talk about this new [eVTOL] space, with every function, each one of these companies is kind of redefining” which parts of the avionics they want to own and develop.

5. eVTOL pilots will be connected with the ground at all times.

With so much data in play, avionics for these new aircraft will have to be connected to more than just an air traffic control center. Depending on the eVTOL’s mission, they’ll be using 5G cellular networks or satellite comms or other systems to link with the internet and data clouds. 

“These eVTOLs, they’re virtually all going to be connected virtually all the time,” Schwinn says. “We certainly are hearing about this from our customers. That’s another big, big topic for eVTOLs and their flight decks.”

Connectivity will be crucial for accessing the right data quickly. In fact, eVTOL manufacturers Lilium (NASDAQ:LILM) in Germany and Vertical Aerospace (NYSE:EVTL) in the U.K. have chosen to launch their aircraft with Honeywell’s new Anthem flight deck, which specializes in cloud connectivity. Touted as “the world’s first always-on, cloud-connected avionics,” Anthem generates and transfers data from ground-based servers so the aircraft becomes accessible through a cloud computing infrastructure.

Honeywell Aerospace’s Anthem avionics suite offers constant connection with the internet. [Courtesy: Honeywell Aerospace]

Experts say 5G may work for low-flying air taxis and delivery eVTOLs, but it’s too soon to know for sure.

”Whatever the mission, at the end of the day, I think you’re going to see these aircraft being way more connected than we’ve seen to date on GA airplanes,” Schwinn says.

As you might expect, plenty of big questions remain, such as standardization. Will the avionics industry come together on how pilots would operate eVTOL decks? Or will pilots have to be type rated to operate avionics made by different OEMs? 

Keep in mind: eVTOL aircraft have yet to be type certificated by the FAA and much needs to be done before the fledgling industry proves itself. 

“Right now, it’s early days,” Schwinn says. After eVTOL moves beyond off-the-shelf avionics, things will start to pop. “When they really hit the market and mature, you’re going to see some really tightly integrated stuff. Eventually, eVTOLs are going to be the most highly integrated aircraft out there.”

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Honeywell Forecast Shows Resilience, Optimism https://www.flyingmag.com/honeywell-30th-business-aviation-outlook/ Mon, 11 Oct 2021 21:28:53 +0000 http://159.65.238.119/honeywell-30th-business-aviation-outlook/ The post Honeywell Forecast Shows Resilience, Optimism appeared first on FLYING Magazine.

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The business aviation industry continues its climb out from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, according to a leading report released on Sunday.

Honeywell Aerospace reviewed its 30th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook on October 10, ahead of the National Business Aviation Association conference in Las Vegas, Nevada. The report projects 7,400 new jet deliveries totaling $238 billion over the next 10 years.

The totals reflect an increase of 1 percent over 2020 predictions.

The report is based in part on operator surveys conducted by Honeywell’s research team regarding plans for fleet renewal, projected utilization, and initial aircraft purchases.

The optimistic look towards aircraft acquisition is driven by the ongoing return to pre-pandemic levels of flying—operators surveyed expect flight hours in 2021 that will be 50 percent higher than those they tallied in 2020—with greater growth ahead for 2022.

Honeywell Aviation Outlook
Honeywell’s confidence in the upcoming need for business aviation was echoed by NBAA president and CEO Ed Bolen in Sunday’s event. Courtesy of Honeywell Aerospace

New business jet deliveries in 2022 are expected to be up 10 percent, as few operators mentioned postponing their acquisition plans. In fact, 90 percent of survey respondents said the pandemic had not put off their deliveries of new or pre-owned jets.

“The increased demand for used jets is estimated at more than 6,500 units over the next five years, putting pressure on an already record low inventory and driving additional demand for new jets,” said Heath Patrick, president, Americas Aftermarket, Honeywell Aerospace.

“Our latest operator survey results support continued private jet usage growth, as more than 65 percent of respondents anticipate increased business jet usage in 2022,” said Patrick. “Despite the ongoing challenges presented by the pandemic, flight hours have recovered and grown beyond pre-pandemic levels.

Flying interviewed Javier Jimenez Serrano, who is the senior strategy analyst leading the research team behind Honeywell’s numbers, during a special preview.

“We’re still below the 10-year forecast [in deliveries from 2019] because of the delta variant,” said Serrano, but the company anticipates that the industry will be entirely back to 2019 numbers by mid-decade. Still, the operators surveyed have kept five-year plans a bit modest as a result of the delta variant’s lingering effects—though large changes were not in the cards.

“We interviewed over 1,500 operators, representing more than 14 percent of the global fleet,” said Serrano. “And they told us—90 percent of them told us—that they do not expect to make any changes or delay their purchase plans for new or used jets—that’s up from 80 percent last year. So we’re trending in the right direction here.”

Honeywell Aviation Outlook
The 10-year forecast projects 7,400 new aircraft deliveries, with between 575 and 620 taking place in 2021. Courtesy of Honeywell Aerospace

What About Used Jets?

With charter operations leading the recovery, the pre-owned jet pool is expected to continue to decrease, said Serrano. Offsetting this will be the introduction of several new super midsize, large-cabin, and ultralong-range jets into the marketplace between 2022 and 2025—including the:

  • Bombardier Global 3500
  • Gulfstream G400, G700, and G800
  • Dassault Falcon 6X and 10X

Planned purchases of used jets also remain strong, posting a 12-percent bump over 2020 figures—the equivalent of adding 800 more jets to corresponding business plans. “Operators worldwide indicated that 28 percent of their fleet is expected to be replaced or expanded by used jets over the next five years, up 3 percentage points compared with survey results from 2020,” the report said.

Regional Projections

By region, the 2021 report outlines the tempered resilience of the North American and Asia-Pacific markets.

Compared to 2020, plans over the next five years for acquisitions in the North America region are down by 3 percent as operators look ahead and face uncertainty driven by the delta variant.

New jet purchase plans in North America are down 3 percent in this year’s survey compared with last year. Over the next five years, at least 13 percent of the fleet is expected to be replaced or supplemented with a new jet purchase.

  • Roughly 35 percent of responding operators plan to schedule their new purchases within the first two years of the five-year horizon. This is 3 percentage points higher than in last year’s survey, and above the worldwide average of 29 percent.
  • Purchase plans for used jets are up 4 percent as compared to last year’s survey—and remain above historical averages.
  • An estimated 63 percent of worldwide demand for new jets will come from the region during the next five years, down just 1 percentage point compared with the 2020 survey.
Honeywell Aviation Outlook
Roughly 63 percent of global sales originate in North America. Courtesy of Honeywell Aerospace

In Asia-Pacific, a similar picture emerges, with more plans for growth despite ongoing travel restrictions:

  • Asia-Pacific operators have plans to replace at least 15 percent of their jet fleets over the next five years with new jet purchases, up from 14 percent in 2020′s survey.
  • APAC operators also report fleet expansion intentions for the first time in three years, equating to 0.3 percent of the current fleet.
  • Asia Pacific is projected to represent a 12-percent share of global new jet demand over the next five years.
  • About 20 percent of respondents in APAC plan to schedule their new purchases within the first two years of the five-year horizon, compared with 30 percent just a year ago.

In Latin America, purchase plans have recovered to 2019 levels. Operators in Europe, however, continue to deal with cross-border restrictions and show a bit less optimism, with purchase plans down 5 percent. In the Middle East and Africa, the pessimism shows through a bit more, with the survey indicating a five-year low in expectations to buy.

Honeywell Aviation Outlook
It’s no surprise that demand for large-cabin jets is driven by the desire to go fast (more than Mach 0.85) and extend range. Courtesy of Honeywell Aerospace

A Look to the Future

Ed Bolen, president and CEO of NBAA, echoed Honeywell’s confidence in the industry’s resilience:

“Over the past year we have seen an incredible influx of new entrants into our marketplace. The benefits of business aviation are suddenly very real and tangible to people who hadn’t experienced it before.”

Bolen was part of a panel hosted by Honeywell at its release event at NBAA on Sunday evening, joining Stéphane Fymat, Honeywell’s vice president and general manager of urban air mobility and UAS, and Geoffrey Richardson, chief financial officer of Lilium, pioneering eVTOL manufacturer.

Fymat has led the dedicated unit for a little more than a year, and he highlighted the biggest accomplishment and challenge so far.

“In terms of the biggest accomplishment, we really set out not just to create a business unit within Honeywell, but to make this happen in the industry. We set out to evangelize, to provide thought leadership—and a year and a half later I’d say we’ve definitely made huge strides in that.”

“The most important thing is that we’ve been able to partner with leading innovative aircraft designers like Lilium…to help them bring their vision forward. Their vehicles are not possible without things like fly-by-wire systems. They are not possible without light avionics systems that have a pathway to autonomy.”

With that observation, Fymat illuminated just why Honeywell’s recent release of Anthem is so critical—because it is 50 percent lighter overall than similar integrated flight decks, and that it is constantly connected, and therefore, sets its own “pathway to autonomy.”

On the flip side of this opportunity sits the key challenge Fymat noted: “If weight were important in any aircraft application, it is absolutely king in urban air mobility, in regional air mobility.”

Lilium’s Richardson concurred, and went on to share his perspective, from Lilium. “In 2023, we will have—whether it’s a 6-, 8-[seat] aircraft with Stéphane’s [team’s] great contributions flying—that’s what we’ll be putting into service.”

Richardson expressed humility that the certification process requires many steps, proving a number of new technologies from a range of partners—but still mentioned a goal of reaching certification by 2024 and being poised for the “scaling stage” to come.

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