Convective outflow boundaries emanating away from thunderstorms are generated as cold, dense air descends in downdrafts then moving outward away from the convection to produce a mesoscale cold front also known as a gust front. Some gust fronts can be completely harmless or may be a precursor for an encounter with severe turbulence and dangerous low-level convective wind shear. The direction of movement of the gust front isn’t always coincident with the general motion of the thunderstorms. If the gust front is moving in advance of the convection, it should be strictly avoided. The pilot’s best defense is to recognize and characterize the gust front using METARs, ground-based radar and visible satellite imagery.

According to research meteorologist and thunderstorm expert, Dr. Charles Doswell, “cold, stable air is the ‘exhaust’ of deep, moist convection descending in downdrafts and then spreading outward like pancake batter poured on a griddle.” As a pulse-type thunderstorm reaches a point where its updraft can no longer support the load of precipitation that has accumulated inside, the precipitation load collapses down through the original updraft area. Evaporation of some of the rain cools the downdraft, making it even more dense compared to the surrounding air. When the downdraft reaches the ground, it is deflected laterally and spreads out almost uniformly in all directions producing a gust front. 

• READ MORE: Keeping an Eye on the Storm

Gust fronts are normally seen moving away from weakening thunderstorm cores. Once a gust front forms and moves away from the convection the boundary may be detected on the NWS WSR-88D NEXRAD Doppler radar as a bow-shaped line of low reflectivity returns usually 20 dBZ or less. Outflow boundaries are low level events and do not necessarily produce precipitation. Instead, the radar is detecting the density discontinuity of the boundary itself along with any dust, insects and other debris that may be carried along with the strong winds within the outflow. The gust front in southwest Missouri shows up very well on the NWS radar image out of Springfield as shown below. 

 An important observation is to note the motion of the gust front relative to the motion of the convection. In this particular case, the boundary is steadily moving south while the thunderstorm cells that produced the gust front are moving to the east. This kind of outflow boundary is usually benign especially as it gains distance from the source convection. On the other hand, a gust front that is moving in the same general direction in advance of the convection is of the most concern. These gust fronts often contain severe or extreme turbulence, strong and gusty straight line winds and low-level convective wind shear. 

As mentioned previously, gust fronts are strictly low-level events. As such, even the lowest elevation angle of the radar may overshoot the boundary if it is not close to the radar site. Shown above at 22Z, the NWS WSR-88D NEXRAD Doppler radar out of Greenville-Spartanburg, South Carolina is the closest radar site and clearly “sees” the gust front (right image). However, the NEXRAD Doppler radar out of Columbia, South Carolina (left image), is further away and misses the gust front completely. As the gust front moves away from the radar site, it may appear to dissipate, when in fact, the lowest elevation beam of the radar is simply overshooting the boundary. 

As a result, it is important to examine the NEXRAD radar mosaic image before looking at the individual radar sites.

Not all gust fronts are easy to distinguish on visible satellite imagery; the gust front could be embedded in other dense clouds or a high cirrus deck may obscure it. It is also possible that the boundary may not have enough lift or moisture to produce clouds. In many cases, however, it will clearly stand out on the visible satellite image. When the gust front contains enough moisture, as it was in this situation, cumuliform clouds may form along the boundary and move outward. This is very common in the Southeast and coastal regions along the Gulf of Mexico given the higher moisture content.  

As this particular gust front passed through my neighborhood located south of Charlotte, North Carolina, strong, gusty northerly winds persisted for about 10 minutes. As is common, the main core of the precipitation didn’t start to fall for another 10 minutes. When a gust front such as this appears on satellite or radar, it is important to monitor the METARs and ASOS or AWOS closely for the occurrence of high winds. Several airports in the vicinity reported wind gusts peaking at 30 knots. The sky cover went from being just few to scattered clouds to a broken sky with these cumuliform clouds moving rapidly through the region.

• READ MORE: The Ins and Outs of Pilot Weather Reports

As mentioned earlier, a gust front moving away from thunderstorms is a low-level event that can contain very strong updrafts and downdrafts. The graph shown above is a time series, plotting the upward and downward motion or vertical velocity in a strong gust front as it moved over a particular point on the ground. The top half of the graph is upward motion and the bottom half is downward motion. 

Time increases from left to right. As the gust front approaches, the vertical velocity of the air upward increases quickly over a one or two minute period. While the maximum vertical velocities vary with height in the outflow, a common maximum number seen is 10 m/s at about 1.4 km or 4,500 feet agl (25 knots is roughly 12 m/s for reference). As the gust front moves through, the velocities abruptly switch from an upward to a downward motion creating strong wind gusts at the surface. Most outflow boundaries don’t extend above about 2 km or 6,500 feet agl. What is remarkable is that upward to downward motion changes in just about 30 seconds over the ground point where this was observed. But imagine flying an aircraft at 150 knots through this; the up and down exchange will happen in just a few seconds producing a jarring turbulence event.

Just in case you were wondering, gust fronts are conveniently filtered out by your datalink weather broadcasts as shown above for XM-delivered satellite weather. This is because the broadcast only provides returns from actual areas of precipitation. Often outflow boundaries or gust fronts produce low reflectivity returns that fall below the threshold used to filter out other clutter not associated with actual areas of precipitation. When in flight, pay particular attention to surface observations looking for strong, gusty winds before attempting a landing at an airport when storms are approaching. 

This feature first appeared in the July/August Issue 949 of the FLYING print edition.

The post Know Your Convective Outflow Boundaries appeared first on FLYING Magazine.

But wait, is vertical visibility even a legitimate visibility? Actually, it’s a bit of a misnomer and not a true measure of visibility in the traditional sense. Vertical visibility is a close cousin to ceiling. That is, it represents the distance in feet a person can see vertically from the surface of the Earth into an obscuring phenomenon, or what is called an indefinite ceiling. What isn’t obvious is how vertical visibility is determined, and how this is different from a definite ceiling.

It’s arguable that an indefinite ceiling is perhaps the most misunderstood phenomenon reported in a routine (METAR) or special surface (SPECI) observation. Forecasters will add vertical visibility in a terminal aerodrome forecast (TAF) as illustrated in the image below for Bradford Regional Airport (KBFD) in Pennsylvania. Whether this occurs in a METAR or TAF, vertical visibility is coded as “VV” followed by a three-digit height in hundreds of feet above the ground level. For example, you may see “VV002,” which is a vertical visibility of 200 feet. While a definite ceiling can be broken or overcast, a vertical visibility always implies the sky is completely covered. Let’s explore the difference between a definite and indefinite ceiling and the operational considerations.

Automated Observations

In the early days, human weather observers used to employ what were called “pilot balloons” to estimate the ceiling height. Essentially the balloon was launched by the observer and, given the balloon’s known rate of ascent, they watched the balloon enter the base of the clouds and measured the time it took using a stopwatch to determine the ceiling height. Then new technology emerged called a rotating beam ceilometer that measured the height of clouds. While it was more effective than launching a balloon, this method was phased out around 1990 and replaced with the laser beam ceilometer, the technology still widely used today.

The task of walking outside and assessing the height of clouds is generally a thing of the past given that this technology is incorporated into the automated surface observing system (ASOS) or automated weather observing system (AWOS) present at many airports throughout the U.S. The trained observer simply logs in to the ASOS (or AWOS) and makes their observation based on the data gathered and reported by the automated system. Then the observation is edited and augmented by the observer as necessary. Depending on the airport, this process may be completely automated.

In all honesty, making an estimate of the height of the cloud base isn’t the difficult part. What’s difficult is to provide a representative description of the amount of cloud coverage (e.g., few, scattered, broken, or overcast) in the airport’s terminal area. A laser beam that points straight up may easily miss a scattered or broken cloud deck. To alleviate this issue, the automated systems process the data over a given amount of time since clouds are generally moving through the sensor array area. It was found that a 30-minute time period provided a representative and responsive observation similar to that created by a trained observer. The most recent 10 minutes of sky cover and ceiling height are double weighted using a harmonic mean. (A harmonic mean is used in the visibility and sky cover algorithms rather than an arithmetic mean because it is more responsive to rapidly changing conditions such as decreasing visibility or increasing sky coverage/lower ceiling conditions.) In the end, the goal is to provide an observation representative of the airport’s terminal area, which is the area within 5 sm from the center of the airport’s runway complex. Visibility, wind, pressure, temperature, etc., all have their own harmonic means accordingly.

In our everyday experience, we know that many cloud decks observed from the ground have a very well-defined base. For an untrained observer, it might not be a simple task to determine their height. However, it’s easy to pick out where the base of the cloud starts. Even in these cases, the cloud decks may vary in height and multiple cloud layers may exist. Visually, that may be more difficult to discern for the untrained eye, but automated systems do a reasonable job making that observation. In a convective scenario, it is not unusual to see multiple scattered and broken cloud heights. For example, at the West Michigan Regional Airport (KBIV) the following was observed:

KBIV 122353Z AUTO 08011KT 4SM RA BR FEW011 SCT048 OVC065 19/18 A2972

This observation includes three definite cloud layers, which are a telltale sign that a convective environment is in place even before the first lightning strike.

Nuts and Bolts

An ASOS continuously scans the sky. To determine the height(s) of the clouds, the backscatter returns from the ceilometer are put into three different bins. When there’s a “cloud hit,” the system identifies a well-defined and sharp signature pattern that you’d expect with the sensor striking the cloud base. Essentially this means most of the hits are aggregated around a particular height above the ground. Such a sharp signature is then incorporated into the 30-minute sky cover and cloud height harmonic average, and a new observation is born.

On the other hand, a “no hit” is recorded when there isn’t an ample amount of backscatter received, usually because there are no clouds below 12,600 feet agl over the sensor. Note that the ASOS (and AWOS) is designed only to detect clouds below 12,600 feet above the ground, although a trained observer can and does report higher clouds. Lastly, if the backscatter does not provide that sharp signature around a particular height, an “unknown hit” is recorded. It is this unknown hit that leads us down the path to an indefinite ceiling or vertical visibility.

Haze, Mist, and Fog, Oh, My!

So, isn’t an indefinite ceiling the same thing as a ground fog event? Not necessarily. Stratus is the most common cloud associated with low ceilings and reduced visibility. Stratus clouds are composed of extremely small water droplets or ice crystals (during the cold season) suspended in the air and may be touching the surface, so to speak. An observer along a coastal region or on the side of a mountain would likely just call this plain old fog. This is certainly understandable, since we grew up calling this kind of situation foggy.

Fog, however, is thought to be more of an obstruction to visibility from a surface observing standpoint. To understand the recording of obscurations, here’s how the ASOS automatically determines what to report. Once each minute, the obscuration algorithm checks the reported visibility. When the visibility drops below 7 sm, the current dew point depression (temperature-dew point spread) is checked to distinguish between fog (FG), mist (BR), and haze (HZ). If the dew point depression is less than or equal to 4 degrees Fahrenheit (~2 degrees Celsius), then FG or BR will be reported. Visibility will then be used to further differentiate between FG and BR.

Whenever the visibility is below five-eighth sm, FG is reported regardless of the “cloud” that produces it. So fog isn’t really about a cloud or ceiling as much as it is about visibility. Therefore, stratus and fog frequently exist together. In many cases, there is no real line of distinction between the fog and stratus; rather, one gradually merges into the other. Flight visibility may approach zero when flying in stratus clouds. Stratus over land tends to be lowest during night and early morning, dissipating by late morning or early afternoon. Low stratus clouds often occur when moist air mixes with a colder air mass or in any situation where temperature-dewpoint spread is small.

• READ MORE: Decoding the Weather

Moisture-Rich Environment

Essentially, an indefinite ceiling means there is something obscuring your view of the cloud base. When you look up, you won’t be able to see a well-defined cloud base like you would on a day where the sky isn’t obscured. According to the ASOS User’s Guide, “these ‘unknown hits’ are primarily caused by precipitation and fog that mask the base of the clouds.” The laser beam bounces off moisture at various heights, making it impossible to process this as a definite cloud hit. Instead, the ASOS identifies these unknown hits as a vertical visibility abbreviated as “VV” in the resulting routine or special observation.

Given the broad moisture field near the surface that scatters the laser beam signal, indefinite ceilings are guaranteed to be paired with low visibility situations. You are not going to see a surface visibility of 10 miles paired with a VV of 200 feet. Usually this means a low or very low IFR flight category anytime there’s an indefinite ceiling. Also keep in mind that an indefinite ceiling in a terminal forecast will result in a low visibility forecast.

In general, the higher the vertical visibility, the better the surface visibility. Therefore, a vertical visibility of 200 feet (VV002) is usually met with a visibility of one-half sm. Furthermore, a vertical visibility of 700 feet (VV007) will likely be associated with a visibility between 1 and 2 sm. While rare, you may even see a fairly high vertical visibility over 1,000 feet (e.g., VV012). In this case, the surface visibility may be over 3 sm. The really bad stuff, however, occurs with a visibility of one quarter sm (or even “M1/4 SM” denoting less than that) and a vertical visibility of zero feet (VV000) as illustrated in the image below for Bradford Regional Airport. This very low indefinite ceiling is not all that common unless you are stationed on the summit of Mount Washington in New Hampshire, where this low vertical visibility happens quite often throughout the year. It also occurs fairly often at airports along West Coast regions of the U.S., especially during their “May gray” or “June gloom” time frame.

As mentioned earlier, fog and precipitation are the two primary reasons the base of the cloud deck is obscured. Therefore, it’s common to see vertical visibility reported when light rain, drizzle, or even snow is falling from the cloud base.

Precipitation or not, it’s generally rare to see a single station reporting an indefinite ceiling. Most of the time, you will see indefinite ceiling reports embedded in a widespread area of low or very low IFR conditions, especially at coastal airports. Although airports such as Nantucket Memorial Airport (KACK) in Massachusetts can be reporting a low indefinite ceiling, at stations farther inland near Cape Cod the sky can be clear or nearly so.

It’s important to note that conditions producing an indefinite ceiling often take longer to improve. Normally there will be a transition from an indefinite to definite ceiling once the moisture begins to mix out with the help of the sun. However, the visibility may still be quite low for the next few hours. Keep this in mind when flight planning to an airport reporting an indefinite ceiling.

Operational Significance

From a practical standpoint, you should treat an observation or forecast for a vertical visibility the same as you’d treat a definite ceiling. Given the nature of conditions that produce an indefinite ceiling, you can expect a longer transition as you depart into such a ceiling under IFR. It’s easy to get spatial disorientation because of the gradual change.

An indefinite ceiling restricts the pilot’s flight (air-to-ground) visibility. Therefore, an instrument approach may be a bit more challenging even after you drop below the reported ceiling height because of the reduced visibility. Most importantly, a circle-to-land approach with an indefinite ceiling will make it quite difficult to keep the runway in sight, especially at night. And, as a final consideration, with an indefinite ceiling, don’t be surprised to see runway visual range also pop up in the observation for airports with such equipment.

This feature first appeared in the October 2023/Issue 942 of FLYING’s print edition.

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